Can the Redbirds Ride the Heroics of Lafayette's David Freese to a Series Win?

Kurt Greenbaum (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 04:30 am

I've got to believe that the Redbirds have the momentum now. They finally started to bring their bats to life in the last few innings and they delivered a punishing sucker punch to the Rangers. Will it be enough?

Gregg Palermo (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 04:41 am

I don't know how things trend as far as all-time goes, but I can think of a pair of Game 6's which were so heartbreaking for the loser that Game 7 was almost an afterthought. I was 11 years old and visiting my sister at Family Weekend at John Carroll University in 1986...we ended up watching Game 6 between the Mets and the Red Sox at the Student Union. The TV was on life support. I went up to the TV and hit it to make it work. Coins start flying my way. It happened again and this kept up. By the time Mookie Wilson's groundball goes through Buckner's legs, I'd made $12. Carpenter on 3 days rest is a big concern, but now that Holland worked Game 6, he's not going to be a starting option for Texas, which is huge.

Joe Scott (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 04:52 am

The Rangers have to feel snake bit. Up by two runs twice; two times they were one strike away from winning it all, and they lose. And this is the most exciting World Series game I've ever seen. Even 1975 Game 6, with Fisk waving his HR fair, the Braves-Twins thriller in '91, the ball going through Buckners legs in '86. I've never seen anything like this in a World Series game.

Maggie Rotermund (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 04:54 am

If the momentum around me in Busch Stadium tonight is any indication, the Redbirds are going all the way!

Jean Whitney October 28, 2011 at 04:55 am

It was a pretty unbelievable night—an exhausting game to watch! Fans have to rest up for Game 7! Keep going Cards!

Solambe October 28, 2011 at 12:18 pm

Freese a jolly good fellow!!!

Joe Scott (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 12:37 pm

So, was Game 6 the most exciting World Series game of all time?

Julie Brown Patton (Editor) October 28, 2011 at 01:38 pm

Lafayette High families and Wildwood fans -- please join in the poll at the end of this article in honor of David Freese, and leave him good luck wishes for a repeat performance.

Brian October 28, 2011 at 08:24 pm

Momentum doesn't have as much of an impact in baseball as you might think. In this very series, the Rangers staged a late rally to win a game and lost the next. The Cardinals posted a commanding nine-run win only to lose the next two. The ability to leave the past behind is a key characteristic of winning baseball teams. Check out the 1960 World Series for the prime example of this trait.

Thomas J. Stein October 29, 2011 at 05:49 pm

The most exciting 65 days ever as a Cardinals fan, and I'm loving it!

Thomas J. Stein October 29, 2011 at 05:52 pm

Great comment, Julie! The one-time Lafayette Lancer was also named the MVP of the 2011 NLCS and World Series, just like the late Darrell Porter was in 1982, another Cardinals World Championship year!

James Dochnal October 30, 2011 at 11:08 pm

Just watched the Word Series Cermonery
Pelase except Trubuite: And seen Mr. Freeze receive the key to the City and the County. Mr Freeze: Congratulations I know that a soon you will be to be Hall of Fame will enter the Hall of Fame. Tribute/ Poem to Mr. Freeze: With Mr Freeze the the wins and the Cardinals Could not have benn Achveved I know that every Boy wishes that they could be like you. The visions in their head and the sound of the crack of the bat Is just all that. Mr Freeze step up to the Plate and the sound of the KA--R AHHH CK OF THE BAT. The ball as it flies out of the stadium. Is all that. And Yes. We can take this one tho the Bank. We know for sure that thats a winner!! For the world Series ring. And the Key to the city and the County, You deserve this Honnor. . Now and for ever More.

Karl Frank Jr. October 31, 2011 at 01:55 pm

There is something to be said for momentum. The Wild Card has been around for 16 years now. Wild Card Teams made the World Series 10 of those times and won the World Series 5 Times. Wild Card teams represent 20% of the teams, yet have made the World Series 60+% of the time, winning it almost 30% of the time. The hot team at the end of a long season seams to play a big role.

Brian November 1, 2011 at 08:08 am

@ Mr. Frank The flaw inherent your Wild Card team winning the World Series scenario is that it assumes all Wild Card winning teams ended the season on a hot streak. This is not the norm.
The momentum I'm referring to is from a single game carrying over to the next. Joe Buck and Tim McCarver made reference to the fact that Tony LaRussa walked his clubhouse before Game 7 telling each individual player to forget Game 6. That is how important forgetting yesterday - be it a win or loss - is to winning today.

Karl Frank Jr. November 1, 2011 at 12:15 pm

Brian - your anecdote, while no doubt true, is called narrative fallacy, and has nothing to do with the outcome. It's part of hindsight bias when trying to make an argument. However, Wild Teams make the World Series 60% of the time while representing only 20% of the teams. That implies momentum. However, the momentum could have many causes. An individual example would be Chis Carpenter...see second half numbers vs. First half numbers.

Brian November 2, 2011 at 04:13 am

@ Mr. Frank: I made the statement that I don't believe momentum carries over from a single game to the next before Game 7 took place. Everything gets reset when a game ends. The score goes to 0-0, new starters take the mound, lineups are refreshed, the crowd is somewhat different and the umpiring crew rotates. The only thing carried over is the hot dogs that didn't sell at yesterday's game. If Tony LaRussa believed that his team had momentum of any kind, he would have used it to his advantage. But he told them to forget about Game 6 to put them in the proper mental framework for executing in Game 7.
There have been 17 Wild Card seasons (1995-2011), which means 34 World Series-participating teams. Wild Cards teams have accounted for ten of the 34 participants (29.4%) and two out of each season's eight playoff teams (25%). Of the ten Wild Card teams in the World Series, three had the 2nd best winning percentage over the course of the season in their respective league, four had the third best and three had the fourth best. These are not teams that got hot at the right time in most instances (although there are a few exceptions). They often have great seasons that are just a few games away from being division winners.

Karl Frank Jr. November 2, 2011 at 12:35 pm

Now you've done gone and fudged the numbers. Regardless, even at 29.4%, that's more than chance considering they are only 20% of the teams. Either way, the World Series is a 7 game event in which a wild card team participates 60% of the time and wins 30% of the time. Since it is a series, you have to win a best of five series and two best of 7 series'. Yes, each game matters, but you win the World Series by winning 4 games before the other team does. To deny the Cardinals had momentum since August 25th is...
...regardless, momentum isn't really an easy term to define, nor is the "hot" team, etc. However you define it, the Cards came together at the end of the season and was the only team to win 11 games in the post season. Just like their other wild card counterparts who make up 1/5th of the teams yet win the World Series 1/3 of the time.

Brian November 2, 2011 at 03:33 pm

@ Mr. Frank: If each league has four playoff teams (three division winners + one Wild Card), that means that Wild Card teams account for 25% of the teams in the postseason, not 20%. Nine out of the 17 WS have featured at least one WC team, which means that they have participated in 52.9%, not 60%. As I pointed out, that percentage drops considerably (to 29.4%) when you account for all 34 available slots over the past 17 seasons. And WC teams have won five of 17 WS (also 29.4%), which is not 1/3 of the time.
I also never mentioned anything about August 25th. My point is only that momentum doesn't carry over from one game to the next because everything gets reset. When the Rangers came back to win Game 2, did they magically believe that they would automatically win Game 3? When the Cardinals thrashed the Rangers in Game 3, did they assume that Game 4 would be just as easy? As a player, you can't afford to believe in momentum. You can only believe that the team executing at the highest level on any given day is going to be the winner of the game. This may look like momentum to the average fan, but the view is different from the dugout.

Karl Frank Jr. November 2, 2011 at 03:43 pm

@Brian, good discussion. I will let you have it for now since there is not a clear way to define momentum. I think both of us provided numbers to show that it would be silly to remove what is classicly considered "momentum" from the equation. Either way, the Cardinals were the best team the last two months of the season.

Brian November 2, 2011 at 04:27 pm

@ Mr. Frank: I agree that the Cardinals are a worthy champion and played baseball at a higher level than their opponents to end the season. Tony LaRussa has had my respect since his days in Chicago and I'm glad that he's retiring a champion.